March 19, 2016

Almost a year later, a new high and updates

It's tempting to take positions in $ERX and a few other commodity based instruments, but each time I get close, I realize that some portion of the permanent portfolio is strongly correlated to the asset.  I think there are points where the correlation breaks down, and so I think in such cases I may want to take positions.  Examples would be if oil goes above 80-100 dollars, or if the Yen/Dollar keeps increasing and it starts to negatively impact my $SPY position.

I also have wanted to own bitcoin several times in the last 11 months, but I would really prefer owning it through an ETF, but there's an OTC instrument I'm not sure if I trust.  So far have not made any moves on this.

While mostly due to volatility hedging, the account has hit all time highs several times last week.  I can't even tell you for sure when it hit it's high before that, it has been that long.  I also have a day job, and so I don't give a lot of thought to daily movements, and have not made any changes to my portfolio with one important exception.

Gold.  I have added to my gold position, which had fallen quite a bit, as it hit a 50 day high.  This triggers a rebalance in the even that my exposure is less than 25% of my total allocations outside of the volatility shorts.  So far it's been a profitable move.  I owe this plan of action to Jon Boorman and his trend-following blog.  He's against rebalancing, and that makes sense with his style of trading, but I find something very elegant about rebalancing based on trends.

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