December 10, 2014

Exiting $AMD $NTES and $GRMN

Big down day for the $SPY today.  I lost a little less, but it still hurt.  Casualties include $AMD which is seeking a lower price than it has seen for a very long time. 

I cannot tell you how hard it is to believe there is not more value in a company that has the microprocessor market in consoles cornered.  Yes, PC gaming is dying, but these chip companies should be compared against themselves, and Intel really doesn't have the position $AMD does.  However, all my protests won't change the price.  At one point the position was up into the teens.  Now I will suffer a small loss (also in the teens).  If my position size had not been trivial, I would not have held on this long. 

$GRMN and $NTES don't really look that bad on the charts, but I'm being more aggressive in preparation of moving only into $SPXL or $SSO for a long stock position.  With my $GRMN exit, I will net only a very small gain, and with $NTES about 6%.  At one point, it too was in the teens for percent gain.

I continue to hold onto the possibility that what we are seeing in oil and stocks is a sort of inverse and perhaps closure to the situation that changed the way the stock market worked in 2008.  Oil had climbed and climbed, and then it just collapsed.  Many compare what's happening now to that collapse, but it just doesn't look the same.  Instead it looks more like the buildup that happened beforehand, just in reverse.

I could be, and am often, wrong.  But the notion that suddenly we have energy independence doesn't add up.  Literally the numbers in our oil production do not add up.  There's so much that goes into the supply and demand of energy that it's tough to make a call, but it doesn't feel right to me.

However, if things play out as expected, this could be the beginning of a pre-explosion correction, and this tempts me into dumping stocks sooner rather than later.  However, I am still maintaining discipline, and today's exits actually represent only a very small part of the portfolio.

Share This Article
Share on StockTwits


Post a Comment