September 19, 2014

Exit of $JCP (JC Penney) on breach of aggressive 32 day SMA stop

It's almost assured that my stop is too aggressive for the long term move that JC Penney will make either up or down.  However, I find it hard to justify any moderate change to the stop level, and so I'd be taking on too much risk to give it as much leeway as it truly needs.

I realize there may be a trendline it's showing some strength against, but I just don't put much confidence in them as real support.  In fact, I am overall skeptical of the entire notion of 'support'.   Draw line from A to B, call it support, then the third time it touches it breaks.  It's sort of an after the fact assessment rather than actionable (though I will admit I do use them from time to time).

However if it shows strength off the 105 or makes a new high (2+ month), then I may find myself back in.

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